ABSTRACT

The ability to forecast something is what most people wish. The prediction of tourist time series data is very important in tourism management. There are many methods developed to analyze and forecast univariate time series. This study is mainly focused on forecasting quarterly international tourist arrivals in Cambodia. Holt-Winters method with additive and multiplicative seasonality is used. Diagnostic checking reveals that both models are appropriate but based mean absolute percentage error(MAPE), the model with additive seasonality is better and hence, chosen.

keywords: Tourist arrivals, Holt-Winters’ method, seasonality, trend, ACF, MAPE, Ljung-Box test, augmented Dickey-Fuller test, forecast